How long will the newly elected Thai government, whether formed by People's Power Party or Democratic Party, last? In other words, when is the next military coup?

In fact, I have an even more frightening question: how long will the monarchy last? In Thailand itself, I could probably get arrested for merely publishing this sentence; even outside, people might think I have gone senile, since the Thai king is supposed to be venerated and has the loyalty of the army (which is in fact directly responsible to the King, not to the prime minister or defense ministry) so that any government that even talks about the topic would quickly fall, whether by a vote of parliament or by a coup. Yet, I believe my question is no longer a crazy one. For the election result not only showed the country to be deeply divided, with no one in government knowing how to solve the country's major problems; it also shows the weakened hand of the monarchy and its army.

Most of Thaksin's support is in the rural areas, in particular the north; the Democratic Party is entrenched in Bangkok itself; the party can easily bring demonstrators into the streets. In 1988 Chamlong Srimuang, a retired general and former Mayor of Bangkok, had a long series of bangkok demonstrations against the Prime Minister Prem Tinsulanonda, whose poor handling resulted in a bloody suppression at a local university and led to his downfall following royal intervention.

In fact, if two years ago the King had intervened early in the Shincorp crisis, say by ordering Thaksin to make a voluntary tax payment, or in the middle stage by asking Thaksin to go into exile without taking part in the election he had just called, I believe the coup could have been averted. Now after two years of chaotic conditions Thailand is back to the democratic but divided state, and the weakened control the monarchy has over the political situation is made obvious for everyone to see; whereas two years ago I dont think Thaksin would have dared to call the bluff of the royal intervention, when the next crisis occurs, and I am sure it will, the bluff would be called.

A few hundred years ago when the still reigning Chakri Dynasty was in its early days, a great monk prophesized that there will be no King Rama X; the current King, Rama IX, is over 70.

Now I am not superstitious, nor am I a follower of buddhism or monks. Nevertheless, this prophesy is highly relevant to Thai politics, because Thais are serious buddhists. The thought "will this prophesy turn out to be correct?" is in their back of mind. This certainly made the kind of disrespect Thaksin showed to the royal house a much more touchy issue - the royal house also has the thought in the back of its mind "you must be thinking there will be no Rama X". Further, the soldiers and army officers also have the same thought. It is not at all clear that they would obediently make the next coup when another one is called.

added on 31/5/08

just a few months have passed since the election, and talk is alreay rife about the possibility of another coup; the losing party has brought enough demonstrators into the streets of Bangkok to make people wonder whether the government can control the situation

part of the culture of democracy is that (a) the winning side wins fairly, and (b) the losing side accepts the people's verdict; The conduct of the election appears to have been fair, but Taksin's side has more money, and so the other side can always claim it has not been fair since they cannot afford the same expenditure..

Kings of Thailand:

Rama I, the Great (1782-1809), Buddha Yodfa Chulaloke

Rama II (1809-1824), Buddha Loetla Nabhalai

Rama III (1824-1851), Nangklao

Rama IV (1851-1868), Mongkut

Rama V, the Great (1868-1910), Chulalongkorn

Rama VI (1910-1925), Vajiravudh

Rama VII (1925-1935), Prajadhipok

Rama VIII (1935-1946), Ananda Mahidol

Rama IX, the Great (installed 1946), Bhumibol Adulyadej

Temasek - Shincorp Deal led to Thailand Coup 

Since Temasek bought Takshin's telecommunication company things have gone from bad to worse in Thai politics. It bothered people that not only did Takshin get a very good price, by exploiting regulatory loopholes, Takshin was able to profit handsomely from the deal without having to pay tax. Attacks on the deal immediately arose, more along the line of "foreigners controlling facilities of national importance" than the self serving over cleverness. The tactic attempted by Takshin to disarm the critics, calling a snap election, again turned out to be over clever and only led to even greater trouble, with the Hatyai bombing and his absence finally giving the army the chance to take action. His apparently poor relationship with royal advisors must have emboldened the generals.(Some analysts have pointed out a series of actions by Takshin from 2001 onward to remove royalist sympathisers from government post, indicating a wish to change the monarchy to a genuine figurehead role in anticipation of royal succession.)

For many decades Thailand saw coups and civilian governments come and go while business and life carried on more or less normally, though there has not been a coup since 1991 and people began to get used to the idea that prosperity has helped democracy to acquire firm roots in the country. Now "Asian Values" has re-asserted itself, but the coup's economic impact remains unclear. Undoubtedly the short term outlook of the Temasek investment and market value will take a knock and the long term prospects are still to be assessed.

Like the IMF/World Bank meeting still taking place in Suntec City, the Temasek deal is an example of Singapore's public sector entrepreneurs making deals with the world's rich and powerful. However, in Asia and most parts of the world, stability in the status of the rich and powerful is a still-to-be-established commodity. The coup has diminished positive impact of the meeting event for Singapore: delegates would leaving thinking "how long do good conditions last in Asia?"

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